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From pickleball to AI: capital chases returns in unpriced markets

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From pickleball to AI: capital chases returns in unpriced markets

On October 12, 2026, Temasek Trust and the World Bank Group signed a memorandum of understanding in Bangkok that combines philanthropy and development finance. Less than a week earlier, the Friedkin group had put Everton up for sale. Apollo’s investment in pickleball had reached a valuation of roughly 800 million dollars. According to europeanbusinessmagazine.com, SoftBank was still seeking up to 100 billion dollars from Gulf funds to finance its bet on artificial intelligence. Four apparently distant deals tell the same story: capital seeks returns even where the market has not yet priced them in. The opportunities range from parish halls to Premier League clubs all the way to data centers. For those working in venture capital or building startups, the mechanism is the same in every case.

When in Italy Investment in Pickleball Arrives Before the Business

The clearest lesson comes from American sport. In May 2026, Apollo led a 225-million-dollar investment in pickleball. The deal valued the company born from the merger of the two professional circuits at around 800 million. The momentum is real: according to European Business Magazine, about 24 million players in the United States in 2025, with the sport growing more than 170% in three years. But the part that interests investors is arithmetic. In the same space as one tennis court, three pickleball courts can be installed, with low-cost surfaces. Old empty shopping malls have become the new rent.

European padel had already gone through the same consolidation logic. The World Padel Tour and Premier Padel merged into a single circuit backed by Qatar Sports Investments. The circuit counts 24 tournaments in 16 countries. In football the cycle is even more mature. In December 2024, Dan Friedkin acquired 94.1% of Everton from Farhad Moshiri. He refinanced the debts and completed the move to the new stadium on Liverpool’s waterfront. As of October 2026 the club is up for sale again, with Moelis in charge of the operation. The model is pure private equity: buy, restructure, sell.

The Glass Ceiling of the Hype Cycle

None of these markets reached consolidation without first nearly destroying itself. In 2023, the two pickleball circuits, Major League Pickleball and Professional Pickleball Association, waged the tour wars. They ended up paying players more than 100% of revenues to snatch each other’s names. The Apollo deal is effectively the peace treaty that brings everything together in Pickleball Inc., with combined revenues above 140 million dollars in 2025. The story is familiar to anyone who studies cycles: too much capital chasing too little proven growth.

SoftBank represents the extreme version of the same pattern. Masayoshi Son already lived through the dot-com bubble collapse after surpassing Bill Gates in wealth. He then turned a 20-million-dollar investment in Alibaba into one of the most profitable deals in tech history. According to europeanbusinessmagazine.com, in 2017 the Vision Fund, backed by the Saudi fund PIF and Mubadala, concentrated nearly 100 billion dollars in a single vehicle. The operation produced both successes and WeWork’s failure in 2023. It also produced the collapse of Greensill Capital in 2021. According to europeanbusinessmagazine.com, Today SoftBank has an exposure to OpenAI estimated at around 65 billion dollars, financed with high-yield bonds and loans secured by Arm shares. Having seen the right direction early does not guarantee the right price. The question remains whether the economics of AI justify the capital invested.

In 2023, the two pickleball circuits, Major League Pickleball and Professional Pickleball Association, waged the tour wars.

Who Benefits and Who Is Left on the Court

The dilemma of responsibility emerges in the comparison between philanthropy and finance. The partnership signed in Bangkok intends to combine Temasek Trust’s catalytic capital with the development bank’s capacity to scale. The starting sectors are water, agriculture, health, climate and energy. “Development challenges do not fit neatly into silos, and neither can our response,” said Desmond Kuek, chief executive officer of Temasek Trust. In 2027 a Knowledge Node will open in Singapore to connect philanthropists with the data and expertise of the World Bank Group.

The critical point is that the models compete over benefits. In pickleball, the average pay of women on the professional circuit reached 260,000 dollars in 2024, more than the WNBA: real figures. But loaded forward by investors betting on an audience that has not yet arrived. In English football, the debt with which the Glazers financed Manchester United in 2005 for about 790 million pounds showed the downside of the model, and Everton fans ask whether Roma and Everton really receive the same attention. Those who supply the capital win; those who buy the ticket argue. In the United Kingdom, padel and pickleball compete. Padel has more than twice as many players, 860,000 in 2025, even though it costs more to build. Luxury, today, monetizes better.

From Jack Ma’s Alibaba to the Moelis Exit

The common thread runs from entry to exit. Fenway Sports Group bought Liverpool for about 300 million pounds in 2010. In 2021 it sold a minority stake to RedBird at a markedly higher valuation, without losing control. Todd Boehly and Clearlake paid about 2.5 billion pounds for Chelsea in 2022, setting a new benchmark. Each deal legitimized the next: it is the mechanism by which an asset moves from passion to a recognized asset class.

For Son the mechanism is identical, but without a possible exit. Stargate, announced in January 2025 with OpenAI and Oracle to build AI infrastructure in the United States, cannot be refinanced and resold like a stadium. For the Temasek-World Bank partnership the horizon is scale, not sale: the stated goal is to turn pilot projects into replicable models. The market of the ball, the digital press and fitness, in the end, can teach founders only one rule. The fastest fortunes are not made by inventing the game. They are made by owning courts, leagues and data when everyone else has fallen in love. The ball costs little; the business around it does not.

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